hankyoreh

By Kim Yang-joong, Medical Correspondent

North Korean presses reports that Kim Jong-il died of a "combination of severe acute myocardial infarction and serious renal shock while on board a field train," stating that the diagnosis was confirmed in a pathological autopsy Sunday.

While news of Kim's death was sudden, experts said it was foreseeable following the North Korean leader's stroke in August 2008. US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell, who visited North Korean in February 2010, reportedly said in a private meeting with North Korean defectors after his return that according to the medical information he had received, Kim likely had about three years to live.

In July 2009, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) submitted an opinion to Seoul giving Kim just a 29% probability of surviving the next five years.

Specialists at South Korean hospitals also said Kim's death was a possibility given his medical condition. Not only did he suffer from diabetes and obesity, but his father Kim Il-sung had also died of a heart attack.

Park Deok-u, a cardiology professor at ASAN Medical Center, explained, "It looks as though the major risk factors for myocardial infarction, including age, obesity, arteriosclerosis, diabetes, and hypertension, were not properly managed."

"Many of the factors would have aggravated heart disease as they combined with overwork and cold weather in recent weeks," Park added.

Park said that in the event of a heart attack, he would have had to undergo an operation to open up the blocked coronal artery within one hour at the latest.

"That operation may not have been possible because he was in transit," Park explained.

Gwon Hyeon-cheol, a professor of cardiovascular medicine at Samsung Medical Center, said there was a possibility recent stress owing to North Korea's international, social, and political situation may have had an effect in triggering the heart attack.

Analysts said the timing of the announcement did not reflect any delay, given the time needed to conduct an autopsy.

Lee Jong-won, vice president of Japan's Rikkyo University, said, "What stands out the most with this announcement is the detailed description of the cause of death based on autopsy findings."

The announcement came "relatively quickly," Lee said, indicating the possibility that Pyongyang decided to release the precise cause of death based on the determination that speculation over it it would not aid the establishment of the new regime.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]