Dossier Dossier

15 Mar 2024

Putin’s Wartime Elections

The Russian presidential elections, set for March 15-17, come amidst the backdrop of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the recent death of opposition activist Alexei Navalny.

Dossier Russia Caucasus and Central Asia

by Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti and Mattia Massoletti

On March 15-17, Russians hit the polls for the first presidential elections after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While all appears set for Vladimir Putin to easily win six more years in office, the vote remains of great interest. On the one hand, Putin’s landslide victory would signal that the Kremlin still enjoys massive population support, although the systematic political repression makes the emergence of a political alternative almost impossible. On the other, the prolonged war effort, together with the recent death of the popular opposition activist Alexei Navalny, places the ballot in an unprecedented context.

This ISPI Dossier attempts to trace the unique setting of Russia’s upcoming elections. What is the current state of the Russian society? Is Moscow’s economy really withstanding Western sanctions? And what does the future hold for the Russian energy sector?

Commentary Russia Caucasus and Central Asia

The Constraints of Putin’s Coercion

by Andrei Kolesnikov | 15 Mar 2024

As Putin gears up for Russia's March 2024 "presidential election," securing controlled victory, questions arise about potential post-election military escalation

Commentary Russia Caucasus and Central Asia

“Special military operation”, “Nazis” and “at war with NATO”: Russian state media framing of the Ukraine war

by Mattia Massoletti | 15 Mar 2024

Russian state media's coverage of the Ukraine war reveals strategic narratives aimed at legitimizing the invasion, discouraging Western support to Kiev, and fueling confrontation with the West.

Commentary Russia Caucasus and Central Asia

The Fate of Wagner: Putin’s Maneuvers and the Consolidation of Power

by Samuel Ramani | 15 Mar 2024

Following the fatal crash of a jet carrying Wagner Group leaders, the Kremlin maneuvers to consolidate control over the infamous private military contractor, reshaping its global operations and securing its role in Ukraine and Africa

Commentary Russia Caucasus and Central Asia

The Russian Economy Holds Out at Great Cost

by Antonella Scott | 15 Mar 2024

It is now clear that sanctions imposed from only one part of the world will not bring the economy to its knees. Nevertheless, signs of fragility are increasing and future generations will pay the price.

Commentary Russia Caucasus and Central Asia

What Importance Does the Fuel and Energy Complex Have to Russia?

by Irina Mironova | 15 Mar 2024

As Russia's energy sector grapples with declining production and shifting export dynamics following the invasion of Ukraine, the geopolitical landscape undergoes significant transformation with implications for global energy markets.

Commentary

Staying and Leaving: Russians’ Life Choices in Time of War

by Sergey Utkin | 15 Mar 2024

Assessing the exodus of Russian citizens since February 24, 2022 is complex. Some departures are initially seen as temporary but evolve into permanent resettlements, while others intending permanent emigration may eventually return due to the challenges of living abroad.

Publications

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Europe and Global Governance Russia Caucasus and Central Asia

Georgia’s European Struggle

by Zarina Burkadze 16 May 2024

Georgia's democratic aspirations clash with authoritarian tendencies as the ruling party pushes divisive legislation, threatening progress towards EU integration.

Russia Caucasus and Central Asia

What Importance Does the Fuel and Energy Complex Have to Russia?

by Irina Mironova 15 Mar 2024

As Russia's energy sector grapples with declining production and shifting export dynamics following the invasion of Ukraine, the geopolitical landscape undergoes significant transformation with implications for global energy markets.

Russia Caucasus and Central Asia

The Constraints of Putin’s Coercion

by Andrei Kolesnikov 15 Mar 2024

As Putin gears up for Russia's March 2024 "presidential election," securing controlled victory, questions arise about potential post-election military escalation

Staying and Leaving: Russians’ Life Choices in Time of War

by Sergey Utkin 15 Mar 2024

Assessing the exodus of Russian citizens since February 24, 2022 is complex. Some departures are initially seen as temporary but evolve into permanent resettlements, while others intending permanent emigration may eventually return due to the challenges of living abroad.

Russia Caucasus and Central Asia Russia Caucasus and Central Asia

Putin’s Wartime Elections

by Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti and Mattia Massoletti 15 Mar 2024

The Russian presidential elections, set for March 15-17, come amidst the backdrop of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the recent death of opposition activist Alexei Navalny.

Russia Caucasus and Central Asia

The Fate of Wagner: Putin’s Maneuvers and the Consolidation of Power

by Samuel Ramani 15 Mar 2024

Following the fatal crash of a jet carrying Wagner Group leaders, the Kremlin maneuvers to consolidate control over the infamous private military contractor, reshaping its global operations and securing its role in Ukraine and Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Gaza War: What Does Russia Want?

by Chiara Lovotti 28 Feb 2024

Med This Week

Russia Caucasus and Central Asia

Putin’s Fifth Term Quest: Between Limited Opposition and the Illusion of Democracy

by Leonardo Zanatta 12 Feb 2024

In the upcoming March elections, Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking a fifth term, with officially endorsed candidates providing only symbolic opposition. Meanwhile, antiwar sentiment in the country is rallying behind the figure of Boris Nadezhdin, as Putin strives to uphold a semblance of democracy considering the anticipated outcome of the elections. However, on February 8, the Central Electoral Commission rejected his candidacy.

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23Feb

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